Change-point detection and trend analysis in monthly, seasonal and annual air temperature and precipitation series in Bartın province in the western Black Sea region of Turkey
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Studies associated with climate change and variability are of great importance at both the global and local scale in the global climate crisis. In this study, change-point detection and trend analysis were carried out on mean, maximum, minimum air temperatures and total precipitation based on monthly, seasonal and annual scale in Bartın province located in the western Black Sea Region of Turkey. For this aim, 4-different homogenei-ty tests (von Neumann test, Pettitt test, Buishand range test and standard normal homogeneity test) for change-point detection, Modified Mann–Kendall test and Şen’s innovative trend test for trend analysis, and Sen’s slope test for the magnitude estimation of trends were used. According to the test results, the summer temperatures in particular show increasing trends at the 0.001 significance level. Mean maximum temperature in August, mean minimum temperature in June and August, and mean temperature in July and August are in increasing trend at the 0.001 significance level. Over a 51 year period (1965–2015) in Bartın province, the highest rate of change per decade in air temperatures is in August (0.55°C for Tmax, 0.46°C for Tmin and 0.43°C for Tmean) based on Sen’s slope. However, the study showed that apart from October precipitation, there is no significant trend in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in Bartın. Increasing trends in mentioned climate variables are also visually very clear and strong in Şen’s innovative trend method, and they comply with the statistical results. As a result, the study revealed some evidence that temperatures will increase in the future in Bartın and its environs.
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Bibliografia
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Ay M., 2020. Trend and homogeneity analysis in temperature and rainfall series in western Black Sea region, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139, 837–848.
Balov M.N. & Altunkaynak A., 2019. Trend analyses of extreme precipitation indices based on downscaled outputs of global circulation models in the western Black Sea basin, Turkey. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering, 43, 821–834.
Bolat İ., Kara Ö. & Tok E., 2018. Global warming and climate change: a practical study on Bartın, Zonguldak and Düzce. Journal of Bartın Faculty of Forestry 201, 1, 116-127.
Buishand T.A., 1982. Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. Journal of Hydrology, 58, 11–27.
Cengiz T.M., Tabari H., Onyutha C. & Kisi O. 2020. Combined use of graphical and statistical approaches for analyzing historical precipitation changes in the Black Sea region of Turkey. Water, 12, 705, 1-19.
Dabanlı İ., Şen Z., Yeleğen M.Ö, Şişman E., Selek B. & Güçlü Y.S., 2016. Trend assessment by the innovative-Şen method. Water Resources Management, 30, 14, 5193-5203.
Dabanlı İ., 2018. Drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment in Turkey. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11, 18, 1-12.
Demircan M., Demir Ö., Atay H., Yazıcı B., Eskioğlu O., Tuvan A. & Akçakaya A., 2014. Climate change projections for Turkey with new scenarios. The Climate Change and Climate Dynamics Conference, CCCD, Istanbul, 72-81 pp.
Demircan M., Gürkan H., Eskioğlu O., Arabacı H. & Coşkun M., 2017. Climate change projections for Turkey: three models and two scenarios. Turkish Journal of Water Science & Management, 1, 1, 22-43.
Ertuğrul M., Varol T. & Özel H.B., 2014. Climate changes in prospect for the west Black Sea forests. Journal of Bartin Faculty of Forestry 16, 23, 24, 35-43.
Ertuğrul M., 2019. Future forest fire danger projections using global circulation models (GCM) in Turkey. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 28, 4A, 3261-3269.
Gama J., 2016. Climtrends: statistical methods for climate sciences. R package version 1.0.6. Retrieved from https://cran.r-project.org/package=climtrends.
Gao P., Mu X.M., Wang F. & Li R., 2011. Changes in streamflow and sediment discharge and the response to human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1–10.
Hamed K.H., Rao A.R., 1998. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology, 204, 182-196.
IPCC 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core writing team, Pachauri R.K. & Meyer L.A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
IPCC 2018. Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte V., Zhai P., Pörtner H.O., Roberts D., Skea J., Shukla P.R., Pirani A., Moufouma-Okia W., Péan C., Pidcock R., Connors S., Matthews J.B.R., Chen Y., Zhou X., Gomis M.I., Lonnoy E., Maycock T., Tignor M. & T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.
Jaiswal R.K., Lohani A.K. & Tiwari H.L., 2015. Statistical analysis for change detection and trend assessment in climatological parameters. Environmental Processes, 2, 4, 729–749.
Kang H.F., Yusof F., 2012. Homogeneity test on daily rainfall series in Peninsular Malaysia. International Journal of Contemporary Mathematical Sciences, 7, 1, 9–22.
Kocsis T., Kovács-Székely I. & Anda, A. 2020. Homogeneity tests and non-parametric analyses of tendencies in precipitation time series in Keszthely, Western Hungary. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139, 849–859.
Li J., Tan,S., Wei Z., Chen F. & Feng P., 2014. A new method of change point detection using variable fuzzy sets under environmental change. Water Resources Management, 28, 5125–5138.
Mahmood R., Jia S. & Zhu W., 2019. Analysis of climate variability, trends, and prediction in the most active parts of the Lake Chad basin, Africa. Scientific Report, 9, 6317.
Mitchell J.M., Dzezerdzeeskii B., Flohn H., Hofmeyer W.L., Lamb H.H,. Rao K.N. & Wallen C.C., 1971. Climatic change. WMO Technical Note 79, WMO No. 195.TP-100, Geneva 79 pp.
Önder D., Aydın M., Berberoğlu S., Önder S. & Yano T., 2009. The use of aridity index to assess implications of climatic change for land cover in Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 33, 305-314.
Önol B. & Unal, Y.S., 2012. Climate change simulations and their assessment over climate zones of Turkey. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 1921–1935.
Önol B., Bozkurt D., Turuncoglu U.U., Sen O.L. & Dalfes H.N., 2014. Evaluation of the twenty-first century RCM simulations driven by multiple GCMs over the Eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region. Climate Dynamics, 42, 1949-1965.
Patakamuri S.K., Muthiah K. & Sridhar V., 2020. Long-term homogeneity, trend, and change-point analysis of rainfall in the arid district of Ananthapuramu, Andhra Pradesh State, India. Water, 12, 1, 211.
Patakamuri S.K. & O'Brien N., 2020. Modifiedmk: modified versions of Mann Kendall and Spearman's Rho trend tests. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=modifiedmk
Patil S.G., 2019. Application of change point analysis (CPA) to monthly temperature in Tamil Nadu, India. Mausam, 70, 3, 561-568.
Pettitt A.N., 1979. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics), 28, 2, 126-135.
Pohlert T., 2020. Trend: non-parametric trend tests and change-point detection. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=trend
Rybski D. & Neumann J., 2011. A review on the pettitt test. In extremis, disruptive events and trends in climate and hydrology (eds. Jurgen P.K. & Schellnhuber H.J.), Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg.
Sen P. K., 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 1379–1389.
Sönmez A.Y. & Kale S., 2020. Climate change effects on annual streamflow of Filyos River (Turkey). Journal of Water and Climate Change. 11, 420-433.
Şen Z., 2012. Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17, 1042-1046.
Şensoy H. & Ateşoğlu A., 2018. A review of climate type variability from Bartın region. Journal of Bartın Faculty of Forestry, 20, 3, 576-582.
Tarhule A. & Woo M., 1998. Changes in rainfall characteristics in northern Nigeria. International Journal of Climatology, 18, 1261–1271.
Tayanç M., İm U., Doğruel M. & Karaca M., 2009. Climate change in Turkey for the last half century. Climatic Change, 94, 483-502.
Turoğlu H., 2014. İklim değişikliği ve Bartın Çayı havza yönetimi muhtemel sorunları. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 12, 1, 1- 22.
Türkeş M., Sümer U. & Kılıç G., 1995. Variations and trends in annual mean air temperatures in Turkey with respect to climatic variability. International Journal of Climatology, 15, 557-569.
Türkeş M., Sümer U. & Kılıç G., 1996. Observed changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1195-1196.
Türkeş M., Sümer U. & Demir I., 2002. Re-evaluation of trends and changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures of Turkey for the period 1929-1999. International Journal of Climatology, 22, 947 - 977.
Türkeş M. & Tatlı H., 2009. Use of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and a modified SPI for shaping the drought probabilities over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 2270–2282.
Türkeş M., 2019. Scientific basis of climate change and ımpacts on Turkey. Climate change training module series 1, the project co-funded by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey, 73 p., www.iklimin.org
Von Neumann J., 1941. Distribution of the ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 13, 367–395.
Wijngaard J.B., Klein Tank A.M.G. & Konnen G.P., 2003. Homogeneity of 20th century european daily temperature and precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology, 23, 679-692.
Xie H., Li D. & Xion L., 2014. Exploring the ability of the Pettitt method for detecting changepoint by Monte Carlo simulation. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 28, 1643–1655.
Yaman B., Özel H.B., Yıldız Y., Pulat E. & Işık B., 2020. The effect of climate on the radial growth of Oriental Beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky) in Abdipaşa, Bartın, Turkey and hydrological evaluations. Accepted article in Forestist.
Yozgatlıgil C. & Türkeş M., 2018. Extreme value analysis and forecasting of maximum precipitation amounts in the western Black Sea subregion of Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 38, 15, 5447-5458.
Yue S., Pilon P., Phinney B., & Cavadias G., 2002. The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrological Processes, 16, 9, 1807–1829.
Ay M., 2020. Trend and homogeneity analysis in temperature and rainfall series in western Black Sea region, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139, 837–848.
Balov M.N. & Altunkaynak A., 2019. Trend analyses of extreme precipitation indices based on downscaled outputs of global circulation models in the western Black Sea basin, Turkey. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering, 43, 821–834.
Bolat İ., Kara Ö. & Tok E., 2018. Global warming and climate change: a practical study on Bartın, Zonguldak and Düzce. Journal of Bartın Faculty of Forestry 201, 1, 116-127.
Buishand T.A., 1982. Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. Journal of Hydrology, 58, 11–27.
Cengiz T.M., Tabari H., Onyutha C. & Kisi O. 2020. Combined use of graphical and statistical approaches for analyzing historical precipitation changes in the Black Sea region of Turkey. Water, 12, 705, 1-19.
Dabanlı İ., Şen Z., Yeleğen M.Ö, Şişman E., Selek B. & Güçlü Y.S., 2016. Trend assessment by the innovative-Şen method. Water Resources Management, 30, 14, 5193-5203.
Dabanlı İ., 2018. Drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment in Turkey. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11, 18, 1-12.
Demircan M., Demir Ö., Atay H., Yazıcı B., Eskioğlu O., Tuvan A. & Akçakaya A., 2014. Climate change projections for Turkey with new scenarios. The Climate Change and Climate Dynamics Conference, CCCD, Istanbul, 72-81 pp.
Demircan M., Gürkan H., Eskioğlu O., Arabacı H. & Coşkun M., 2017. Climate change projections for Turkey: three models and two scenarios. Turkish Journal of Water Science & Management, 1, 1, 22-43.
Ertuğrul M., Varol T. & Özel H.B., 2014. Climate changes in prospect for the west Black Sea forests. Journal of Bartin Faculty of Forestry 16, 23, 24, 35-43.
Ertuğrul M., 2019. Future forest fire danger projections using global circulation models (GCM) in Turkey. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 28, 4A, 3261-3269.
Gama J., 2016. Climtrends: statistical methods for climate sciences. R package version 1.0.6. Retrieved from https://cran.r-project.org/package=climtrends.
Gao P., Mu X.M., Wang F. & Li R., 2011. Changes in streamflow and sediment discharge and the response to human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1–10.
Hamed K.H., Rao A.R., 1998. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology, 204, 182-196.
IPCC 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core writing team, Pachauri R.K. & Meyer L.A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
IPCC 2018. Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte V., Zhai P., Pörtner H.O., Roberts D., Skea J., Shukla P.R., Pirani A., Moufouma-Okia W., Péan C., Pidcock R., Connors S., Matthews J.B.R., Chen Y., Zhou X., Gomis M.I., Lonnoy E., Maycock T., Tignor M. & T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.
Jaiswal R.K., Lohani A.K. & Tiwari H.L., 2015. Statistical analysis for change detection and trend assessment in climatological parameters. Environmental Processes, 2, 4, 729–749.
Kang H.F., Yusof F., 2012. Homogeneity test on daily rainfall series in Peninsular Malaysia. International Journal of Contemporary Mathematical Sciences, 7, 1, 9–22.
Kocsis T., Kovács-Székely I. & Anda, A. 2020. Homogeneity tests and non-parametric analyses of tendencies in precipitation time series in Keszthely, Western Hungary. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139, 849–859.
Li J., Tan,S., Wei Z., Chen F. & Feng P., 2014. A new method of change point detection using variable fuzzy sets under environmental change. Water Resources Management, 28, 5125–5138.
Mahmood R., Jia S. & Zhu W., 2019. Analysis of climate variability, trends, and prediction in the most active parts of the Lake Chad basin, Africa. Scientific Report, 9, 6317.
Mitchell J.M., Dzezerdzeeskii B., Flohn H., Hofmeyer W.L., Lamb H.H,. Rao K.N. & Wallen C.C., 1971. Climatic change. WMO Technical Note 79, WMO No. 195.TP-100, Geneva 79 pp.
Önder D., Aydın M., Berberoğlu S., Önder S. & Yano T., 2009. The use of aridity index to assess implications of climatic change for land cover in Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 33, 305-314.
Önol B. & Unal, Y.S., 2012. Climate change simulations and their assessment over climate zones of Turkey. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 1921–1935.
Önol B., Bozkurt D., Turuncoglu U.U., Sen O.L. & Dalfes H.N., 2014. Evaluation of the twenty-first century RCM simulations driven by multiple GCMs over the Eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region. Climate Dynamics, 42, 1949-1965.
Patakamuri S.K., Muthiah K. & Sridhar V., 2020. Long-term homogeneity, trend, and change-point analysis of rainfall in the arid district of Ananthapuramu, Andhra Pradesh State, India. Water, 12, 1, 211.
Patakamuri S.K. & O'Brien N., 2020. Modifiedmk: modified versions of Mann Kendall and Spearman's Rho trend tests. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=modifiedmk
Patil S.G., 2019. Application of change point analysis (CPA) to monthly temperature in Tamil Nadu, India. Mausam, 70, 3, 561-568.
Pettitt A.N., 1979. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics), 28, 2, 126-135.
Pohlert T., 2020. Trend: non-parametric trend tests and change-point detection. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=trend
Rybski D. & Neumann J., 2011. A review on the pettitt test. In extremis, disruptive events and trends in climate and hydrology (eds. Jurgen P.K. & Schellnhuber H.J.), Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg.
Sen P. K., 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 1379–1389.
Sönmez A.Y. & Kale S., 2020. Climate change effects on annual streamflow of Filyos River (Turkey). Journal of Water and Climate Change. 11, 420-433.
Şen Z., 2012. Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17, 1042-1046.
Şensoy H. & Ateşoğlu A., 2018. A review of climate type variability from Bartın region. Journal of Bartın Faculty of Forestry, 20, 3, 576-582.
Tarhule A. & Woo M., 1998. Changes in rainfall characteristics in northern Nigeria. International Journal of Climatology, 18, 1261–1271.
Tayanç M., İm U., Doğruel M. & Karaca M., 2009. Climate change in Turkey for the last half century. Climatic Change, 94, 483-502.
Turoğlu H., 2014. İklim değişikliği ve Bartın Çayı havza yönetimi muhtemel sorunları. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 12, 1, 1- 22.
Türkeş M., Sümer U. & Kılıç G., 1995. Variations and trends in annual mean air temperatures in Turkey with respect to climatic variability. International Journal of Climatology, 15, 557-569.
Türkeş M., Sümer U. & Kılıç G., 1996. Observed changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1195-1196.
Türkeş M., Sümer U. & Demir I., 2002. Re-evaluation of trends and changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures of Turkey for the period 1929-1999. International Journal of Climatology, 22, 947 - 977.
Türkeş M. & Tatlı H., 2009. Use of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and a modified SPI for shaping the drought probabilities over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 2270–2282.
Türkeş M., 2019. Scientific basis of climate change and ımpacts on Turkey. Climate change training module series 1, the project co-funded by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey, 73 p., www.iklimin.org
Von Neumann J., 1941. Distribution of the ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 13, 367–395.
Wijngaard J.B., Klein Tank A.M.G. & Konnen G.P., 2003. Homogeneity of 20th century european daily temperature and precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology, 23, 679-692.
Xie H., Li D. & Xion L., 2014. Exploring the ability of the Pettitt method for detecting changepoint by Monte Carlo simulation. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 28, 1643–1655.
Yaman B., Özel H.B., Yıldız Y., Pulat E. & Işık B., 2020. The effect of climate on the radial growth of Oriental Beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky) in Abdipaşa, Bartın, Turkey and hydrological evaluations. Accepted article in Forestist.
Yozgatlıgil C. & Türkeş M., 2018. Extreme value analysis and forecasting of maximum precipitation amounts in the western Black Sea subregion of Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 38, 15, 5447-5458.
Yue S., Pilon P., Phinney B., & Cavadias G., 2002. The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrological Processes, 16, 9, 1807–1829.
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Yaman, B., & Ertuğrul, M. (2020). Change-point detection and trend analysis in monthly, seasonal and annual air temperature and precipitation series in Bartın province in the western Black Sea region of Turkey. Geology, Geophysics and Environment, 46(3), 223. https://doi.org/10.7494/geol.2020.46.3.223
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